Carl Davidson – 11/7/18


This page was last updated on December 5, 2018.

Local Instant Summary; Carl Davidson (KD); Facebook; November 7, 2018.

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Carl Davidson 11/7/18 @ 8:39am:LOCAL INSTANT SUMMARY: Beaver County remains divided, 48-52 in favor of the GOP, a sad challenge for a Rust Belt area that’s largely working class.  I worked my Aliquippa precinct #4 yesterday as poll watcher, noting every voter and sending a runner to find our Dem stragglers.  Our turnout, in a progressive majority city, matched a presidential year, much higher than normal.  A plus was all the new young voters, usually African American women, not on my list since they were first-timers.”

[RWC] The source of the voting data I use below is the Beaver County (BC) website.

I don’t know where KD got Beaver County (BC) is “48-52 in favor of the GOP.”  Actually, I do know, but please bear with me.  As of the 2018 General Primary, BC registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans 50.7% to 36.9%.  Of voters who cast a ballot, Democrats outnumbered Republicans 55.3% to 44.7%.

In Aliquippa #4 (total of 306 registered voters), registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans 80.7% to 13.1%.  Of voters who cast a ballot, Democrats outnumbered Republicans 84.6% to 15.4%.  In the 2018 General Election, Aliquippa #4 turnout was 54.6% (167 of 306) and contradicts KD’s claim that turnout “matched a presidential year, much higher than normal.”  While Aliquippa #4’s 2018 turnout was higher than usual for mid-terms, it did not “match a presidential year.”  Turnout for the last three presidential elections was 73.9% (2008), 74.3% (2012), and 67.3% (2016).

KD wrote, “A plus was all the new young voters.”  If KD’s “new young voters” exist, they aren’t offsetting losses elsewhere in his precinct.  The number of registered voters in KD’s precinct is slowly dropping, from 395 in 2008 to 306 in 2018.

As for Aliquippa is “a progressive majority city,” KD didn’t mention his data source.  Overall, Aliquippa has been overwhelmingly Democrat (75.7% in 2018 General Primary) since at least the 1930s.  That said, those Democrats generally were not anywhere close to what KD calls “progressives.”  KD also likes to claim the U.S. is “progressive majority.”

“The candidate to represent us in Harrisburg, James Craig, won the city but lost the district, which is gerrymandered with largely rural Washington County.  On the other hand, because we beat gerrymandering on the Congressional level, Dem Conner [sic] Lamb won, tossing out Keith Rothfus, our GOP right winger.  Our governor Tom Wolf, and his new lieutenant John Fetterman, both progressive-to-moderates, blew away the GOP, as did Senator Bob Casey.”

[RWC] Getting back to KD’s earlier “Beaver County remains divided, 48-52 in favor of the GOP” claim, you’ll note KD contradicts himself in this paragraph.  The earlier claim was based solely on the Congressional District 17 election.  While fascist <g> Rep. Conor Lamb (D-18) won at the newly-gerrymandered district level, Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-12) beat him in BC, 51.7% to 48.3%.  Not included were the elections for governor and the Senate.  Sen. Bob Casey (D) beat Rep. Lou Barletta (R), 50.1% to 47.2% in BC.  KD has a low threshold for blowing away a competitor.  I was surprised Rep. Barletta did as well as he did in BC, given he appeared to focus on eastern PA.  Heck, the local Republican committee had to ration lawn signs because they received so few.  Finally, Governor Tom Wolf (D) beat Scott Wagner (R), 53.2% to 45.0%.

“But the GOP remains strong in the Harrisburg legislature.  Our Pittsburgh DSA chapter, however, sent them to [sic] young women socialists running on the Dem line, to deal with.  We lost our toughest race, Darcelle Slappy, a solid left-progressive Dem who had to run on the Green line because the GOP finagled their guy onto both the GOP and Dem lines.  We knew it was a long shot, but we built an organization and gained experience for Darcelle in the future.”

[RWC] “Progressives” are already solidly on the left.  What the heck is “a solid left-progressive Dem?”

“I’ll have more to say when I crunch more numbers that aren’t in yet.  But on the whole, we’re happier than the Trump camp today.  So as PDA founder Tim Carpenter, rest his soul, often said: Teamwork! Onward!  This is a 365/7 marathon folks, not a one-day 100-yard dash.”

In Peace, Friendship, Community, Cooperation, and Solidarity. <g> 

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