Deane Lavender – 4/20/08

This page was last updated on April 20, 2008.

Climate change is real; Deane Lavender; Beaver County Times; April 20, 2008.

Based on his previous letters (here, here, and here), it appears Mr. Lavender is a serial Bush/Republican basher. That’s not the topic of this letter, however.

You can find most of my thoughts about manmade global warming at this link.

Below is a detailed critique of the subject letter.

“Tuesday letter writers Joe Reynolds (‘Be careful of change’) and Fran Edwards (‘Start drilling in ANWR’) need to get their facts straight.”

[RWC] Read the Edwards letter and you find Mr. Lavender corrects nothing Mr. Edwards wrote. (If Fran Edwards is female, let me know and I’ll correct this critique.)

“First, the oil production numbers: The United States consumes 20.7 million barrels of oil per day. We produce 5.1 million barrels per day. The best estimate of potential production from drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge would be 1 million barrels per day.”

[RWC] Perhaps Mr. Lavender should concentrate on getting his own “facts straight.” Mr. Lavender is correct about domestic oil production being about 5.1 MBPD. According to the EIA, we imported 13.4 MBPD, meaning we consume about 18.5 MBPD. Of course, it’s possible Mr. Lavender is including imported finished products, but that’s not what he said.

FYI, we’re not talking about the entire ANWR. The area under question is less than 10% of the ANWR along the Beaufort Sea and is adjacent to the Prudhoe Bay field that’s been producing for just over 30 years.

Is Mr. Lavender telling us Increasing domestic production by about 20% isn’t significant?

“It is impossible for the United States to produce oil in quantities that would make us independent of foreign oil sources, even if we tap every last potential oil field within our territorial boundaries.”

[RWC] Who said it would? Neither Mr. Edwards nor Mr. Reynolds made that claim. Is Mr. Lavender’s position that if a field by itself can’t “make us independent of foreign oil sources,” we shouldn’t tap it? It sounds like Mr. Lavender is telling us we should stop domestic exploration and production.

“The oil companies already have access to 90 percent of Alaska’s North Slope. Must they have it all?”

[RWC] I don’t get the “Must they have it all?” question. If we don’t give oil producers access to crude, how do we produce finished products from it?

I don’t know where Mr. Lavender got his “90% of Alaska’s North Slope” comment. Existing Prudhoe Bay facilities occupy only about 5,000 acres out of North Slope Borough’s 60,648,320 (about 95,000 square miles). That’s only 0.008% according to my math. The footprint in the relevant area of the ANWR would be even smaller.

“Then, earth’s atmosphere: It’s made up of about 78 percent nitrogen and 21 percent oxygen, with the rest composed of various gases in small quantities. Carbon dioxide and methane are among these, but their effect on global heat retention is far beyond their percentage of atmospheric makeup.”

[RWC] In case you wondered why Mr. Lavender told us how much of everything is in the atmosphere except for CO₂ and CH₄, here’s why. CO₂ is about 0.035% and CH₄ is about 0.0002%.

“Finally, water vapor: It makes up 0.25 percent of earth’s total atmosphere, and 1 percent to 4 percent near the surface, not 90 percent as Reynolds maintained.”

[RWC] Since any grade school student knows about 99% of the atmosphere is nitrogen and oxygen, I don’t know what prompted Mr. Reynolds to assert 90% is water vapor. Perhaps he was referring to the percentage of so-called greenhouse gases since 90% water vapor would be close, though a few percent high.

“Climate change is real, it is serious and sticking our heads in the sand is not an answer to it.”

[RWC] “Climate change is real?” No kidding! Earth’s climate has been changing for billions of years and will continue to do so for billions more. How does Mr. Lavender believe Greenland got its name? As I wrote in a letter to the editor, “A first millennia AD warming period allowed the Vikings to inhabit and farm Greenland. The second millennia ‘Little Ice Age’ forced the Vikings back out.”

Notice the language change. What used to be called “global warming” is now called “climate change.” Why?

In any case, when Mr. Lavender wrote of “climate change,” he was really referring to manmade global warming. You’ll note that nowhere in his letter did he present any data to support his opinion.