BCT “news” article – 3/8/11

The editorial cites U.S. Census Bureau estimates that show the populations of Allegheny and Beaver counties grew by 1,204 and 159, respectively, from 2009 to 2010.  Later the editorial says, “The gains are small but significant, said Beaver County Commissioner Charlie Camp, who also chairs the Southwestern Pennsylvania Commission; they reflect an area that is more diverse economically now than it has been for years.”

It’s true the alleged “gains are small,” “but significant?”

First, I believe the reporter and Mr. Camp let themselves get carried away by the fact the Beaver County estimate went up “for the first time in at least two decades” and ignored the alleged magnitude.

Second, an increase of 159 is only 0.09% over Beaver County’s 2009 population estimate of 171,638.  The Allegheny County increase was a nearly identical 0.10%.  I couldn’t find the Census Bureau’s official margin of error (MOE) for these estimates, but I think it’s fair to say 0.10% and under is within the MOE, especially when you consider the inherent variability of estimating the population.

Third, we’re talking about estimates, not actual counting as in the decennial census.  Even when we do a real census, it’s not like counting the fingers on your hand where you’ll get the same result time after time.

I hope at some point our population increases really become significant, but 0.09% for one year isn’t there.