Post-Gazette Editorial – 10/29/04

This page was last updated on October 29, 2004.

Are we better off?; Editorial; Pittsburgh Post-Gazette; October 29, 2004.

The editorial failed to note the P-G previously announced its endorsement for John Kerry. After all, the P-G wouldn’t want us to believe it would “spin” the data.

The editorial tends to compare current figures with figures from 2000 or early 2001. Remember Clinton’s last budget covered the fiscal year from October 1, 2000, through September 30, 2001. President Bush’s first budget didn’t take effect until October 1, 2001.

The point of my critique is to identify inaccurate data and data taken out of context. For example, at no point does the editorial mention the impact of 9/11 and the accounting scandals uncovered in 2001 that began in the 1990s.

Below is a detailed critique of the subject editorial.

“One every-four-years test that Americans frequently apply before voting is to ask themselves if they are better or worse off than they were four years ago.

“The answer obviously always has a personal twist to it, depending to some degree on individual circumstances. At the same time there are some measures that can be applied to answer the same question in the context of the overall American economy.

“Figures to look at, by no means an exclusive list, include the unemployment rate, the jobs creation record, where the stock market stands, the U.S. balance of trade between imports and exports, the price of gas at the pump, the inflation rate, the budget deficit, the level of the national debt, the consumer confidence index and even the rate of the dollar against the euro, the European Union currency.

“So where are we as we approach Election Day 2004?

“The unemployment rate is up from 4 percent in 2000 to 5.4 percent now. Creation of new jobs was a dismal 96,000 in September; 135,000 to 150,000 new jobs are needed each month just to stay even; the Bush administration has lost 821,000 since it came to office; the Clinton administration averaged 248,000 new jobs created per month.”

[RWC] The P-G failed to note the unemployment rate began climbing during Clinton’s last fiscal year. The unemployment rate increased from 4% in September 2000 to 5% in September 2001. The job impact of 9/11 didn’t appear until October 2004 when the unemployment rate jumped to 5.4%.

The current 5.4% unemployment rate is exactly the same as it was in 1996 when we reelected Clinton. During the summer of 1996, reporters called even 5.6% “already low.”

Regarding the myth of a net job loss, each month the BLS actually conducts two job surveys, the household and the payroll surveys. Historically, the payroll survey underestimates employment because it doesn’t count the self-employed or those persons who work at home or on farms. When you use the household survey data, there has been a net employment increase of 1.9 million jobs since President Bush took office.¹ The household survey is also the basis for the official BLS unemployment figures. Now you know why Democrats like to quote the payroll survey when a Republican is in office. I suspect Republicans like to pull the same stunt on Democrats.

“The stock market is down slightly since 2001. The Dow Jones industrial average was 10,578 when Mr. Bush took office; it closed at 10,004 yesterday.”

[RWC] The P-G failed to note the DJIA was 11,723 during January 2000. The P-G doesn’t want us to remember the DJIA had been in a yearlong slide before President Bush took office.

“The price of gas was averaging under $1.50 at the pump in January 2001; it is now at $2.03 a gallon.”

[RWC] Presidents are powerful, but they don’t control oil prices.

“The inflation rate is down from 3.73 percent in January ‘01 to 2.54 percent now.

“The consumer confidence index was at 115 when Mr. Bush came to power; it has now dropped to 92.8.”

[RWC] The P-G failed to note the CCI also fell during Clinton’s last year. That said, the CCI tends to bounce around a bit. For example, the CCI for July 2004 was 106.1.

“The budget was in surplus by $230 billion Mr. Clinton’s last year; this year it was in deficit by $412.5 billion. The national debt stood at $5.7 trillion in 2001; as a result of Bush administration deficits it has now ballooned to $7.4 trillion, $25,000 of debt per American.”

[RWC] The budget surplus during Clinton’s last fiscal year (10/1/00 – 9/30/01) was $127 billion, not $230 billion. The P-G cites an approximate surplus for Clinton’s penultimate fiscal year. The P-G doesn’t want us to know the surpluses were on their way out before President Bush took office.

Regarding the debt, the P-G cites the gross debt, not the net debt held by the public. Citing the gross figure is double dipping. The net debt increased from $3.3 trillion at the end of Clinton’s last fiscal year (9/30/01) to $4.3 trillion at the end of the most recent fiscal year (9/30/04).

“The U.S. balance of trade -- imports and exports -- was in deficit by $436 billion in 2000; in August alone of this year it was $54 billion in deficit; projected, that would be $648 billion for the year.

“For those who might like to travel to Europe, one euro, the currency of the European Union countries, cost 92 cents in 2000; it now costs $1.27.

“So, go figure -- are we better off? -- then go vote.”

[RWC] How would the Post-Gazette know who is lying, if anyone? As far as I can tell, it conducted no investigation to determine the veracity of any claims, either for or against John Kerry.

Over the years, Kerry said he committed and witnessed atrocities. This means one of two things. Either he was a war criminal or at least didn’t report war crimes – a court-martial offense, or he lied in his testimony to further his antiwar goals. Neither result is heroic.

When 250+ Vietnam veterans don’t swallow the Kerry story, they are the ones who “surrendered their integrity?” Why do vets supporting Kerry deserve unquestioned credibility while vets opposing Kerry deserve our disdain?

1. Why Are the Dems Griping About Jobs?; Robert J. Barro; BusinessWeek; October 4, 2004. A subscription is required to access this web site.